Next LO concession

[Chris M]

The current London Overground franchise (concession) runs until November 2016, I know that's almost 2 years away still but I was wondering what the timescale for the next franchising process is - if that is yet known?

[dazz285]

I did hear the other day that several companies have already been looking at LO depots etc in readiness for putting in bids for the new concession.

[Deleted]

Oh dear, all the usual suspects will circle the only company that I would consider a worthy company are Chiltern. I would have thought TFL would have learnt their lesson with the outsourcing disasters which were, Metronet, Tubelines, Alstom tube train maintenance etc. However that said the with current antics of the RMT this is giving ammunition for Boris the Mare to proceed down this road or should that be rail!

[Chris M]

While I am all in favour of insourcing (is that the right word) and public ownership of trains, I'm not sure you can consider the current LO concession a "disaster". Indeed compared to other TOCs it's rather a success story I'd have said.

[rincew1nd]

Mar 2, 2015 12:07:11 GMT @xercesfobe said:

Oh dear, all the usual suspects will circle the only company that I would consider a worthy company are Chiltern.

Current operator: LOROL (Parent company: Arriva UK Trains, well half)
Your proposed operator: Chiltern (Parent company: Arriva UK Trains)

So no change then

I hadn't realised until I actually wrote a list just how much of our rail network isn't operated by UK owned companies.

[brigham]

What made you think the rail industry was any different from other 'British' industries?

[norbitonflyer]

Mar 2, 2015 12:57:57 GMT rincew1nd said:

LOROL (Parent company: Arriva UK Trains , well half)
Your proposed operator: Chiltern (Parent company: Arriva UK Trains) I hadn't realised until I actually wrote a list just how much of our rail network isn't operated by UK owned companies.

Including Arriva, which is owned by Deutsche Bahn. The other half of LOROL is MTR, which is Hong Kong-owned

I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd be interested in your list.

[rincew1nd]

Mar 2, 2015 13:26:46 GMT norbitonflyer said:

I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd be interested in your list.

Your wish is my command. Clicky.

Now back to LO.

[grahamhewett]

@xercesfobe - I doubt if TfL have much choice in the matter so long as the present government is in office - all they are allowed to do is to exercise franchising powers instead of Ministers . If they owned the infrastructure, as they do for LU,that might be different. It will beinteresting in the extreme to see what happens if there is a change of regime in May -the shadow transport minister is talking about letting the public sector compete to run franchises, if not to wind up the franchising process altogether, so LOROL will be an early test for him. BTW, now what could be the TfL equivalent of DOR, I wonder?

[Deleted]

Lets not go back to the disaster of a state owned vanilla railway with no choice for the consumer. Plus with no private sector involvement the Treasury will no longer have to pump money into network upgrades which is necessary if the private sector is involved. Remember that before de-nationalisation there was absolutely NO long term investment programme in the network apart from a few odd individual cut-price schemes. The only people to benefit from state ownership will be the Trades Union leaders who will use a unified state railway as a blunt instrument to hit the government with - just as they did before 1994. I suggest you all look around - there is actually NO privatised railway. The state owns NR which owns ALL of the infrastructure - stations, signals, tracks, tunnels, cuttings, embankments, bridges, line-side land and buildings and the power supply and communications, etc. Rolling stock is owned by leasing companies. Train and station staff are employed by TOCs who deliver the service mandated by the Government who micro-manage almost everything. The government even set more than 70% of the fares. TOCs have little room to innovate because of the little known Treasury rule of the 'intrinsic value of the asset' meaning a TOC cannot do anything that affects the 'value' of the asset they are temporarily looking after - without the express permission of the DfT who must consult with the Treasury. Do you follow my drift? I worked in the Treasury before and after 1994 so for one odd instance I actually know what Im talking about! The concession model used for LO and now Crossrail is the best suited to circumstances in London, much as it is for Merseyrail who use a broadly similar model. However, I sincerely doubt that a Labour government would ever re-nationalise - after all the government already runs the railways more closely and more hands-on than they ever did prior to 1994! And what government is going to say 'oooops our public-sector franchise bidder was unsuccessful so thats £5m of public money down the drain just for the bidding process!'. I'm not even going to rehearse that EU law would prevent re-nationalisation or that any attempt would provoke horrendously complicated legislation and litigation. Focus on the outputs for the customer and not the inputs such as who owns it.

[Chris M]

Mar 2, 2015 15:13:33 GMT grahamhewett said:

BTW, now what could be the TfL equivalent of DOR, I wonder?

East Thames Railways?

[norbitonflyer]

Mar 2, 2015 15:46:45 GMT @timdunning said:

I'm not even going to rehearse that EU law would prevent re-nationalisation .

Please don't - because it's not true. Most European railway systems are still state-owned. Indeed, the Railways Act 1993 allows the government to operate the services if no suitable bid is forthcoming - which includes situations in which there are bids but it would be more economic to do the work in house.

[grahamhewett]

@timdunning - you are quite wrong in fact when you say that the EU legislation prevents the re-nationalisation of a railway. I might mention Eesti Raudtee (the Estonian State railways) which I sold on behalf of their government, only for a new incoming government to renationalise it after about four years. The Commission had no qualms (officially) about that all.

BTW as the senior civil servant in charge of UK rail policy in the '80s and subsequently BR's Director of Planning, and their executant for the entire suite of privatisation documentation and all the non-franchise sales negotiations, much of what you say about investment is, I fear, not quite right. You also overlook the fact that a state owned railway cost the taxpayer far less (because it was run on cash, not accruals) than its private sector equivalent. At a rough estimate, privatisation has cost us all a penny on income tax. And if you think that the private sector isn't in hock to the unions, I suggest you look at the real terms increase in drivers' pay over the last 20 years. The truth of the matter, as an private operator will tell you is that a TOC cannot stand a strike of more than about 6 weeks before it runs out of cash. TOCs are not businesses of substance. The unions have done that calculation, too...

[snoggle]

Mar 2, 2015 10:45:37 GMT Chris M said:

The current London Overground franchise (concession) runs until November 2016, I know that's almost 2 years away still but I was wondering what the timescale for the next franchising process is - if that is yet known?

This is purely a guesstimate on my part but I would imagine the procurement and mobilisation process will take about 15-18 months. I understand TfL have been working away at their requirements for the next concession term for quite a while. Looking at other NR franchises there is normally a 3 month period from confirmation of contract award to the start of the contract - for example East Coast was awarded late 2014 and Stagecoach took over on 1 March 2015.

I think TfL have several challenges on their hands for the next concession.

1. How do you cope with growing demand?
2. What is the upgrade path for the NLL / ELL / WLL / SLL core services?
3. What are the capital investment demands for TfL and what might sit with the concessionaire?
4. How is performance maintained across any concession change and whilst significant capital works are underway (new rolling stock, GOBLIN electrification)?
5. What can be done to West Anglia services beyond whatever is achieved in the short term?
6. Will government permit further transfer of services to TfL control and are those services in the Overground concession or tendered separately?

It will be interesting to see how things progress.

[Deleted]

Mar 2, 2015 12:07:11 GMT @xercesfobe said:

However that said the with current antics of the RMT this is giving ammunition for Boris the Mare to proceed down this road or should that be rail!

And what current antics of the RMT would that be?

[Deleted]

Mar 10, 2015 22:10:18 GMT @routemasterkeith said:

Mar 2, 2015 12:07:11 GMT @xercesfobe said:

However that said the with current antics of the RMT this is giving ammunition for Boris the Mare to proceed down this road or should that be rail!

And what current antics of the RMT would that be?

The Northern Line driver that failed the alcohol breath test and the subsequent drivers strike!