Shovel Ready Projects?

[alpinejohn]

Whilst this post is inherently a follow on from the thread considering the impact of the Virus outbreak on TFL services, I did not wish to clog up that thread with a more forward looking question.

One obvious consequence of this virus is that lots of jobs will never return, hence the Government is now looking at funding infrastructure projects to rapidly create employment and help get the economy started.


Doubtless this will trigger a lot of road improvement projects around the country, however the big question is whether TFL have any shovel ready investment projects which they can get the green light for now?


- Finish signalling upgrades on the sub surface lines and possibly also the Picaddilly?

- Bakerloo Extension?

- CrossRail 2

- Dare I say it Croxley link?


Are there others?

[jimbo]

I would have thought that projects lasting up to around five years would be contemplated, rather than 10 years plus. More like maintenance projects, station lifts, etc.

[goldenarrow]

I guess you could add the expansion of Holborn and Camden Town stations aswell as the replacement of the 72 and 92 stocks given that a production line is already being set up and the plethora of step free access schemes that have been shelved due to budget constraints. Increasing the rate of asset renewals so that we are back to a surplus would be a good start too.

There must be tons more projects that could be considered shovel ready given how loose the definition from Central Government is. Problem is as long as the financial onus is put solely on Transport for London/GLA/City Hall, none of them stand a chance of coming to fruition in the next five years. TfL is widely understood to be the only urban public transport authority not to a receive a Central Government subsidy or regular grant for its operations or capital investment programme a situation that has gone on for almost five years now which has no doubt comprised the networks integrity.

In light of the appalling fiscal climate we find ourselves in, the only thing I'd say is shovel ready is a radical overhaul of the funding models that transcend the organisation, it's well known that it will start with fares and concessions, who knows where it will end.

[jimbo]

Jun 23, 2020 10:07:42 GMT goldenarrow said:

I guess you could add the expansion of Holborn and Camden Town stations as well as the replacement of the 72 and 92 stocks given that a production line is already being set up …..

The Picc trains aren't due until 2024-26, so a while before more trains would add to work, but may convince Siemens to recommit to new Humberside factory with construction work and local production jobs, rather than supply from Europe, as must be increasingly tempting.

[Chris L]

Shovel ready means construction can start.

None of those in the original post are at that stage.

[alpinejohn]

Jun 24, 2020 6:46:18 GMT Chris L said:

Shovel ready means construction can start.

None of those in the original post are at that stage.

... and therein lies the problem...


Every now and then when the economy hits a rough patch the Treasury (or at least their political masters) find a reason to spend more - better to pay people to do useful stuff than collect dole cheques. The current short term investment spending window is not really a totally unexpected development - its economics.

Whilst the Department of Transport has a huge team constantly devising and consulting on potential road improvements, so whenever some public money becomes available, they are ready to swoop in with projects which will gobble up any spare cash - that is why road projects can get up an running very quickly and obviously employ quite a few people at least in the short term.

Meantime the financial pit which TFL (and to some extent Network Rail) now occupies, means that what little planning effort is still carried out, is focused on identifying the unavoidable investment. Just like major road improvement projects, no one is going to approve any of those bigger rail projects (even clearly useful projects like CrossRail2) without being able to provide the Treasury with a clear fix on what needs to be done, how long it will take, and how much it will cost.

Sadly if you simply turn out the lights and walk away from project development as soon as the bean counters conclude the budget cannot afford it, planning is never advanced to a sufficiently robust state to ever be able to put in a credible bid for any funds which may become available in those brief windows when the Treasury is willing to loosen the prurse strings. So roads projects continue to win and rail projects are left to wither.

[philthetube]

I don't think the Croxley link can be far off, after all, work started once.

[sawb]

Given this has been placed in the "general" board, is this thread going to look at just TfL or expand to look at National Rail as well?

[alpinejohn]

Jun 24, 2020 16:27:06 GMT sawb said:

Given this has been placed in the "general" board, is this thread going to look at just TfL or expand to look at National Rail as well?

If you mean Network Rail projects linked to TFL - then why not.

District Dave has never excluded discussion about Tube lines which operate on Network Rail track-beds. I guess TFL Rail makes it complicated as it already strays a long way from the Capital, but they may also have valid problems/projects to tackle where clearly Network Rail would need to be in the lead.

[rincew1nd]

Jun 24, 2020 16:27:06 GMT sawb said:

Given this has been placed in the "general" board, is this thread going to look at just TfL or expand to look at National Rail as well?

This forum is focussed on the Underground, though District Dave tolerated other TfL operated railways.

[jimbo]

The case for any of these improvements probably needs re-evaluation, e.g. Holborn reconstruction will cope with 36tph on Picc and Central lines once they are resignalled. When will that now be necessary, given that only 15% of regular travel is currently undertaken?

[theblackferret]

Quite simply, most of these projects in TfL-Land are dependent on bringing people to London faster.

And how many of those future passengers will instead be continuing with working from home, or will be in a new regional office instead?

That's of course assuming they've all still got jobs-hopefully 100% will, but?

[Chris L]

Jun 25, 2020 2:14:45 GMT jimbo said:

The case for any of these improvements probably needs re-evaluation, e.g. Holborn reconstruction will cope with 36tph on Picc and Central lines once they are resignalled. When will that now be necessary, given that only 15% of regular travel is currently undertaken?

In normal times Holborn is used by thousands of tourists every day. They will return in time.

The station needs step free access and to get rid of the pinch points that cause delays in passenger movement.

Projects do need to be examined in the potential reductions in peak hour travel.

[t697]

If we end up stuck with the general policy of 'distancing', one could argue we still need huge capacity increases to deal with fewer people per train, per escalator, per lift etc.

If instead we get over that and can return to typical crowding of the past, maybe additional capacity won't be needed all that soon. As we know, the ridership climb had levelled off and begun to fall a little in 2019. Crossrail will eventually provide more capacity paralleling some other routes anyway of course.

[Chris M]

All lifts I've used since the start of lockdown seem to have a stated capacity of 2. The sample size for this is not large - just four lifts - but they are of varying sizes:
Two outdoor ones on the Canary Wharf estate:
-from Reuters Plaza to South Colonnade. This one would normally be cosy with more than 2 and 4 would all need to be friendly.
-from Cabot Square to Wren Landing (for the footbridge to West India Quay). This would normally hold 4 strangers in comfort but 6 would prefer to be previously acquainted.
One indoors at Canary Wharf mall (the one outside Canary Wharf Tesco). This would normally hold about 8-10 people without needing to touch.
The south lift of the Greenwich Foot Tunnel. This normally holds 30 with ease - its the largest lift I think I've ever been in (other than the north lift, which is out of order, but the same size).

If TfL's lifts all have the same reduced capacity then stations that rely on lifts for access will have some serious issues.

[jimbo]

Jun 25, 2020 22:49:14 GMT Chris M said:

All lifts I've used since the start of lockdown seem to have a stated capacity of 2. The sample size for this is not large - just four lifts - but they are of varying sizes:
Two outdoor ones on the Canary Wharf estate:
-from Reuters Plaza to South Colonnade. This one would normally be cosy with more than 2 and 4 would all need to be friendly.
-from Cabot Square to Wren Landing (for the footbridge to West India Quay). This would normally hold 4 strangers in comfort but 6 would prefer to be previously acquainted.
One indoors at Canary Wharf mall (the one outside Canary Wharf Tesco). This would normally hold about 8-10 people without needing to touch.
The south lift of the Greenwich Foot Tunnel. This normally holds 30 with ease - its the largest lift I think I've ever been in (other than the north lift, which is out of order, but the same size).

If TfL's lifts all have the same reduced capacity then stations that rely on lifts for access will have some serious issues.

I read that "LU are asking that just four people use lifts at a time".

[spsmiler]

Jun 24, 2020 15:17:07 GMT philthetube said:

I don't think the Croxley link can be far off, after all, work started once.

But will the funding be available for the signalling? Or could it even be that the expansion of CBTC to this service can somehow be included in the 'shovel ready' category?

[spsmiler]

Jun 26, 2020 0:21:12 GMT jimbo said:

I read that "LU are asking that just four people use lifts at a time".

This would be a serious problem indeed, for instance Covent Garden would have to close as there is no way that this station could be opened for only departing passengers as those who do not know will alight from trains no matter how much they are told otherwise - especially overseas tourists who do not understand English.

For stations such as Gloucester Road the solution could be to only open the subsurface platforms. But, asking people to interchange at the far busier and more crowded stations either side would be sub-optimal.

[philthetube]

Jun 27, 2020 14:07:09 GMT spsmiler said:

Jun 24, 2020 15:17:07 GMT philthetube said:

I don't think the Croxley link can be far off, after all, work started once.

But will the funding be available for the signalling? Or could it even be that the expansion of CBTC to this service can somehow be included in the 'shovel ready' category?

The Question is, as I understand it, what projects could go ahead in the near future subject to funding being available, in any case I suspect that in the unlikely case of it happening conventional signalling would be needed for a few years.

[Chris L]

Jun 27, 2020 14:18:42 GMT spsmiler said:

Jun 26, 2020 0:21:12 GMT jimbo said:

I read that "LU are asking that just four people use lifts at a time".

This would be a serious problem indeed, for instance Covent Garden would have to close as there is no way that this station could be opened for only departing passengers as those who do not know will alight from trains no matter how much they are told otherwise - especially overseas tourists who do not understand English.

For stations such as Gloucester Road the solution could be to only open the subsurface platforms. But, asking people to interchange at the far busier and more crowded stations either side would be sub-optimal.

This is probably one of the reasons why a lot of the lift stations are still closed.

[Chris L]

Jun 27, 2020 14:19:52 GMT philthetube said:

Jun 27, 2020 14:07:09 GMT spsmiler said:

But will the funding be available for the signalling? Or could it even be that the expansion of CBTC to this service can somehow be included in the 'shovel ready' category?

The Question is, as I understand it, what projects could go ahead in the near future subject to funding being available, in any case I suspect that in the unlikely case of it happening conventional signalling would be needed for a few years.

To be shovel ready you need to have been out to tender and have potential contractors lined up.

[philthetube]

I think, (and I might have got this totally wrong), that what alpinejohn is looking for are projects which are not currently funded or planned to go ahead but which could do fairly quickley in order to create jobs. things which have been out to tender already are not creating extra employment as such.

[Chris L]

Jun 28, 2020 1:36:27 GMT philthetube said:

I think, (and I might have got this totally wrong), that what alpinejohn is looking for are projects which are not currently funded or planned to go ahead but which could do fairly quickley in order to create jobs. things which have been out to tender already are not creating extra employment as such.

It's projects that can be started immediately if funds are made available that can generate employment.

It should be remembered that a lot of the skilled workers on the Crossrail project were from outside the UK. They will be difficult to replace.

Railway projects typically need years of planning, consents, tenders and evaluation.

[zbang]

Jun 27, 2020 16:14:46 GMT Chris L said:

To be shovel ready you need to have been out to tender and have potential contractors lined up.

Maybe, or maybe not.

From wikipedia-

In politics, a shovel ready construction project (usually larger-scale infrastructure) is where planning and engineering is advanced enough that with sufficient funding, construction can begin within a very short time.

At least in the US, projects aren't put out for bid/tender if the money isn't there to spend; contractors aren't going to do the formal  process if they know it's not going to be awarded (no funding).

[100andthirty]

The current challenge for the government is to kick start shovel ready projects. The trouble is there aren't too many of them around. We've seen further up the thread that there are LU/TfL jobs that are virtually shovel ready, and others that should not be cut back because of funding. Trouble is that the political imperative is to spend money in the north, and there are comparatively few big shovel ready projects up there. Getting Crossrail finished, not truncating the 4LM ATC and getting on with the Piccadilly signalling are probably the quickest. Outside, HS2 is the biggest show that's ready, but not the Northern parts which haven't completed the act of parliament process (have they started?)

Up north they will also be keen on trans Pennine connectivity, but as far as I know this hasn't even got as far as the drawing board. Heaven help them if they have to go though the public procurement process!

So if you want something done that drives prosperity in the North, invest in London. I seem to recall one of the Mayors of London said this........now what was his name?

[bassmike]

Jun 28, 2020 17:45:15 GMT 100andthirty said:

The current challenge for the government is to kick start shovel ready projects. The trouble is there aren't too many of them around. We've seen further up the thread that there are LU/TfL jobs that are virtually shovel ready, and others that should not be cut back because of funding. Trouble is that the political imperative is to spend money in the north, and there are comparatively few big shovel ready projects up there. Getting Crossrail finished, not truncating the 4LM ATC and getting on with the Piccadilly signalling are probably the quickest. Outside, HS2 is the biggest show that's ready, but not the Northern parts which haven't completed the act of parliament process (have they started?)

Up north they will also be keen on trans Pennine connectivity, but as far as I know this hasn't even got as far as the drawing board. Heaven help them if they have to go though the public procurement process!

So if you want something done that drives prosperity in the North, invest in London. I seem to recall one of the Mayors of London said this........now what was his name?

H S T should be cancelled immediately before any more money is blown on it.

[spsmiler]

Jun 28, 2020 18:28:26 GMT bassmike said:

Jun 28, 2020 17:45:15 GMT 100andthirty said:

The current challenge for the government is to kick start shovel ready projects. The trouble is there aren't too many of them around. We've seen further up the thread that there are LU/TfL jobs that are virtually shovel ready, and others that should not be cut back because of funding. Trouble is that the political imperative is to spend money in the north, and there are comparatively few big shovel ready projects up there. Getting Crossrail finished, not truncating the 4LM ATC and getting on with the Piccadilly signalling are probably the quickest. Outside, HS2 is the biggest show that's ready, but not the Northern parts which haven't completed the act of parliament process (have they started?)

Up north they will also be keen on trans Pennine connectivity, but as far as I know this hasn't even got as far as the drawing board. Heaven help them if they have to go though the public procurement process!

So if you want something done that drives prosperity in the North, invest in London. I seem to recall one of the Mayors of London said this........now what was his name?

H S T should be cancelled immediately before any more money is blown on it.

I think you meant HS2, I've never heard of the new high speed railway line 2 being called HST - that acronym is already used for the diesel powered 125 MPH train. I understand that whether or not HS2 is built is a contentious project so will refrain from expressing an opinion on it. However, and this applies to all works, anywhere and everywhere, I would hope that works which involve felling of trees are planned to be mindful of nesting birds in the breeding season. 

On the TV news today I saw something about a York - Leeds line being prepared for HS3. I gather there are several routes between these two cities, and that the route being discussed is not the one that it was once proposed should be electrified using cast-off D stock trains converted to DLR style third rail electrification!

What I would like to see is some line re-openings being included in the 'shovel ready' projects. Beyond the Old Oak area for HS2 / The  London Overground its unlikely that London would benefit from this. But if we look to the Home Counties then maybe Oxford - Cambridge re-opening would fit the bill, plus perhaps the (also long-proposed) reopening between Stansted and Braintree.

I wonder if there are any shovel-ready plans (that just need funding) for expansion of Tramlink?

[rincew1nd]

Additional through platforms for Manchester Piccadilly are a project that has been sat on a desk in Whitehall for nearly a year that is simply waiting for ministerial approval.

HS2 is happening, appeals against it are subject to the courts. Let's stick to shovel ready projects that are TfL railways.

[johnlinford]

Presumably the new DLR station in Silvertown (can't remember the name) and Barking Riverside projects could be accelerated?

[phil]

Jun 23, 2020 8:07:10 GMT alpinejohn said:

Whilst this post is inherently a follow on from the thread considering the impact of the Virus outbreak on TFL services, I did not wish to clog up that thread with a more forward looking question.

One obvious consequence of this virus is that lots of jobs will never return, hence the Government is now looking at funding infrastructure projects to rapidly create employment and help get the economy started.


Doubtless this will trigger a lot of road improvement projects around the country, however the big question is whether TFL have any shovel ready investment projects which they can get the green light for now?


- Finish signalling upgrades on the sub surface lines and possibly also the Picaddilly?

- Bakerloo Extension?

- CrossRail 2

- Dare I say it Croxley link?


Are there others?

Shovel ready mean literally just that - i.e. construction works can start in a mater of weeks!

All the projects you mention will require many months (if not years) of work to get the enabling legislation passed contracts tendered etc and so can in no way be described as 'shovel ready' projects.

Examples of Shovel ready projects are going to be smaller scale ones - maybe a station rebuild or two.

In reality however this proposed increase in infrastructure spending is most likely to be:-

(1) focused on roads as Highways England plus local authorities are sitting on an awful lot of schemes which are 'shovel ready' and just lack funding.

(2) Focused away from the South East so as the Government can seen to be paying attention to the needs of the ex labour heartlands now held by Conservative MPs

Following the Crossrail debacle, plus various policy decisions over recent years by the Mayor its fair to say that the Westminster Government is not exactly impressed with TfL and is not in the mood to chuck any more money London way unless it really has too. As such it is quite likely that the Bakerloo extension will end up being dropped anyway while the only real hope for Crossrail 2 is in the fact that it enables benefits to non Londoners (i.e. frees up train paths into Waterloo for more services from Hampshire / Dorset).