Closure of a London Underground line?

[melikepie]

I saw this about a week ago but it has popped up again. I know this is just speculation but how likely is it that a London Underground Line would close not due to engineering works, given the financial situation of TfL and would they mean for a long time?

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tfl-tube-funding-crisis-sadiq-khan-entire-line-may-have-to-close-b969107.html

Thread title amended - Tom.

[A60stock]

Closing the H and C is possible as it just means no direct link from Liverpool street to Aldgate east and onwards (and vice versa), and every station is served by another line

The Bakerloo I am guessing is due to the age of the trains and the fact its also largely duplicated by Watford DC line. It would just be the section between queens park and Marylebone which is impacted.

Closing the Jubilee or Met just seems like utter madness (unless the latter means a return to all off peak traffic terminating at Baker street). The jubilee is the 3rd busiest line so I cant see how this is even an option. Closing the met would effectively take out most of North West London, especially the outer suburbs.

[Chris M]

Part of me wonders if the mentioned lines are because of the constituencies they serve?

[Tom]

Possibly, but we don't want this to become a discussion about politics and the affiliation of various MPs. All members are asked to be mindful of this when posting, please.

[class411]

The Waterloo and City Line would be an ideal candidate.

[jimbo]

Nov 30, 2021 16:39:37 GMT A60stock said:

Closing the H and C is possible as it just means no direct link from Liverpool street to Aldgate east and onwards (and vice versa), and every station is served by another line .....

And when the new points at the east end of Tower Hill are commissioned soon, the eastbound services could run via the wide island platform, allowing easy cross-platform interchange for travel between those two stations!

[londoner]

Even if certain lines are busier than others, surely by closing an entire line it would just add additional loadings onto other lines which in turn may make them less reliable?

[taylor]

(A.) Those of you who drive it will have a better idea if passenger volumes always demand the current five-minute frequency between Hammersmith and Praed Street Junction. (B.) With a bit of luck by this time next year this board will have many (hopefully favourable) Elizabeth Line comments. That line will inevitably carry a chunk of the current Paddington to Liverpool Street load, probably leading to a noticeable reduction of demand along the northern segment of the Circle. Looking at WTT 36, if the interval for (A.) above were stretched to say 7.5 mins, and Met. frequencies likewise stretched, then could not the H&C be rescinded in its full extent, and the Circle O/R run from Hammersmith via Embankment, Liverpool Street to one of the turn-back points between Whitechapel and Barking (and v.v. the I/R)? This would maintain service between Aldgate Junction and Aldgate East Junction and restore trains from Baker Street to PAD. Praed Street and beyond. We know that keeping the old continuous Cirlce to time was a beast due to no real place to slot in recovery time. Simply put. Circle Line from Hammersmith to West Ham / Plaistow / Barking via Embankment & v.v.

[theexplorer]

In regards to a possible H&C closing, maybe reroute the Uxbridge-Aldgate services on the Met to West Ham? Using the double-ended centre siding east of the station

[Tom]

I think what would be more likely is a reduction/recast of services on the Met, for example nothing beyond Baker Street except in the peaks, 4 tph to Watford, etc, as well as a thinning out of the Bakerloo service beyond Queen's Park, to, say 3tph Bakerloo, 3tph Overground.

Certainly pre-pandemic, there was a real need for the combined Circle and H&C service at Paddington - the frequency was only about every 5 minutes and trains were often full in the morning peak.

As a child I can remember the majority of Central line trains from West Ruislip reversing at Loughton with only a 3tph service between there and Epping, bringing that back would result in a lower demand for trains (it's just shy of 18 minutes running time there and back, excluding dwell time at Epping). Likewise I understand there were a lot fewer District line services beyond Barking back then - somewhere I have a 1990 District Working Timetable which would make for an interesting comparison.

[cudsn15]

Of course this is all political posturing and grandstanding...but I have a gut feeling that this govt may well call Mr Khan's bluff on this and see how far he will go!

If I was going to put money on it I think the Mayor will start off by curtailing lines like Rayners Lane for Piccadilly, Queens Park for Bakerloo, no DLR to Stratford Int. no District to Richmond, no central to Ealing Broadway- just to show he means it but they all have alternatives so won't upset too many locals.

If the govt fail to bung any more cash after that then he might consider closing Bakerloo but I think that would be too difficult with unions and redundancies etc. and to eventually re-open again would also be too much of a challenge. No - I suspect he would go for something much more politically charged like abandoning the Circle line which would seem a greater handicap than it actually is to the media, W&C would be next - to create a stink from the few commuters from the SW who still use it to go to a largely empty city these days, Chesham only once an hour and terminating at Baker St. - no Watford service. I don't think he would touch the overground or TFL/Elizabeth but if he had the gumption he might consider shutting the newly opened Northern Line extension for sheer spite!

As per your other post regarding Pedantry, I've corrected the Mayor's surname - Tom.

[johnlinford]

My money would be on the Circle line - closing any other line (except W&C) would result in very limited cost savings until driver redundancies and the resulting industrial relations breakdown had be solved, whereas I suspect circle line drivers could be redeployed on the SSR and some efficiency savings and maintenance savings on using less rolling stock.

I could see "We'll close the Bakerloo line" being made as a threat but realistically it would take a year or two to do, unless the money really does run out.

[d7666]

Nov 30, 2021 15:32:08 GMT melikepie said:

I saw this about a week ago but it has popped up again. I know this is just speculation but how likely is it that a London Underground Line would close not due to engineering works, given the financial situation of TfL and would they mean for a long time?

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tfl-tube-funding-crisis-sadiq-khan-entire-line-may-have-to-close-b969107.html

Thread title amended - Tom.

Would simply not opening Crossrail count as a closure ?

No impact on existing lines.

Plenty of time then to slowly finish the work.

Store any resultant surplus 345s in the tunnels.

Indeed, main line operators \ roscos are desperate for secure covered accomodation for their surplus rolling stock storage; rent other parts of the tunnels out to them => revenue source.

When the Greek alphabet of covid variants reaches Omega, we must be at the end*** the economy will therefore recover, and we have an instant new tube line to open. Might have to be re-named "William V" line by then though.

Win. Win.




*** Alpha And Omega; The Beginning And The End.

[d7666]

Anyway, a less facetious comment. "one entire line" could mean any line - agreed ?

Isn't the obvious one Waterloo & City ?

By obvious I mean obvious to headline grabbing attention sabre rattling politicians. it is a big headline with the least impact with respect to the entire network.

Don't get me wrong here, I am neither supporting or proposing closing anything of the sort. Merely how politicians manoevure.

W&C does fit the "entire line" bill, and, it was recently closed for months anyway.

Release the 92TS to the Central line, put the cars through CLIP or CLOP or whatever it is they do at Acton to unify them [which means exactly that, make them equal to the main fleet]; Central gets two additional 8-cars, plus some spares, or 5 4-cars if you think like that.

Then, after having closed W&C, they can rebuild re-open at some day hence, new stock, and, dare I say it, driverless _ without industrial relations issues since the existing crews have long gone.

Win. Win.

[Chris M]

Nov 30, 2021 20:19:32 GMT londoner said:

Even if certain lines are busier than others, surely by closing an entire line it would just add additional loadings onto other lines which in turn may make them less reliable?

Any reliability issues would be a matter for the long term, and on that timescale yes it would be a bad deal. However, in a situation like this the short term cost is the only thing TfL can deal with.

[johnlinford]

Nov 30, 2021 23:06:56 GMT d7666 said:

Release the 92TS to the Central line, put the cars through CLIP or CLOP or whatever it is they do at Acton to unify them [which means exactly that, make them equal to the main fleet]; Central gets two additional 8-cars, plus some spares, or 5 4-cars if you think like that.

Then, after having closed W&C, they can rebuild re-open at some day hence, new stock, and, dare I say it, driverless _ without industrial relations issues since the existing crews have long gone.

Win. Win.

I believe the train stock for the W&C has now diverged so far from the Central, that especially combined with the access issues to retrieving it, that it couldn't be meaningfully helpful.  It could certainly be mothballed but the alternative routes are already the busiest - I have no data on current use/loading but I would imagine the cost / revenue basis for the line is fairly good.

The drivers could be deployed back to the Central, and the station staff are existing staff, so at least not many industrial relations issues to contend with.

[d7666]

Nov 30, 2021 23:39:31 GMT johnlinford said:

Nov 30, 2021 23:06:56 GMT d7666 said:

Release the 92TS to the Central line, put the cars through CLIP or CLOP or whatever it is they do at Acton to unify them [which means exactly that, make them equal to the main fleet]; Central gets two additional 8-cars, plus some spares, or 5 4-cars if you think like that.

Then, after having closed W&C, they can rebuild re-open at some day hence, new stock, and, dare I say it, driverless _ without industrial relations issues since the existing crews have long gone.

Win. Win.

I believe the train stock for the W&C has now diverged so far from the Central, that especially combined with the access issues to retrieving it, that it couldn't be meaningfully helpful.  It could certainly be mothballed but the alternative routes are already the busiest - I have no data on current use/loading but I would imagine the cost / revenue basis for the line is fairly good.

The drivers could be deployed back to the Central, and the station staff are existing staff, so at least not many industrial relations issues to contend with.

I know W&C stock is different to Central 92TS and ever increasing differences over time.

But it is a popular misconception they are too divergent not to be resolved.

Yes there are hundreds, if not thousands of differences, but if they went through a full overhaul and modification, you are not doing change 1, change 2, change 3, and reverting every difference one by one. What you are doing is stripping out all the existing W&C gubbins and fittings, and fitting new or overhauled Central standard parts. This is not much different from what you do on a normal 92TS overhaul. You do not consider what you have taken out is non standard, you either throw that away and replace with new (as is being done to 92TS traction upgrade), or you take out that part, put in a new overhauled part from stores to the latest spec, meanwhile that old part goes off to REW to be overhauled, and that process automatically upgrades it, and puts in stores for the next unit. It really is no big deal. Even CLATO. The cars are in pieces anyway, you just install a new or overhauled equipment set as part of that overhaul, OK you might have to drill a few holes or something else mechanical to fit it, but it is not a blocking point. Relative to the cost of converting 85 x 8 cars from DC to AC traction, overhauling and similarly upgrading another 20 cars is peanuts. At least one rolling stock engineering person I have worked with agrees with the principle you do not consider every difference, only overhaul and fit to the latest standard and dump the rest, and he said that applies to everything, be it windows, seats, doors, bogies, ATO, cabs and cab kit, PIS, body welding, corrosion rectification, indeed anything and everything. Really is not the big deal it is made out to be.

[Chris M]

I think I also remember reading (probably somewhere on this forum) that the units could be used as intermediate vehicles on the Central line with very little work. If so in the event the units are transferred the three options would seem to be -
* Do the minimal work and just use them as intermediate vehicles
* Do a full overhaul, but also do the minimal work so that the units can be used as intermediate vehicles while waiting their turn for overhaul.
* Do a full overhaul, leaving the units in sidings or a depot until it is their turn
Which is best will be dependent on a number of factors, likely including cost (time and money) of the minimal work (absolute and relative to the overhaul), rolling stock availability, and available space.

[jimbo]

Nov 30, 2021 19:42:05 GMT jimbo said:

Nov 30, 2021 16:39:37 GMT A60stock said:

Closing the H and C is possible as it just means no direct link from Liverpool street to Aldgate east and onwards (and vice versa), and every station is served by another line .....

And when the new points at the east end of Tower Hill are commissioned soon, the eastbound services could run via the wide island platform, allowing easy cross-platform interchange for travel between those two stations!

I think this would be a real possibility, on the face of it withdrawing a line! It would simplify working at one SSR junction, and as people got used to the easy cross-platform interchange at Tower Hill, I doubt it would be reintroduced if funds became available. Short working Circles to Aldgate from Hammersmith could meet any further demand, perhaps coupled with Met extensions east of Baker Street if necessary. It was recently said that the prospect of 32tph on the SSR depended on its handling of Aldgate junction. This would simplify that for when 32tph is ever justified.

[metrofan]

I would have thought that cutting the number of diagrams needed on most of the lines could be the simplest answer. We all want our train service and especially at the more rural ends of the system. One way to reduce diagrams is to shorten the number of trips where there is overlap with other services. With the Hammersmith and City, it is a shame they took out the turnback facility at Whitechapel. Running a Hammersmith to Whitechapel service would release at least two diagrams, so would using Plaistow manage to save some running? Some Circle line trains could be turned back at Tower Hill on arrival from the east. The Bakerloo line may not need to run the Stonebridge Park terminators beyond Queens Park. I could work through all the lines but I would have thought that at least 5% could be saved without losing any frequency on the outer reaches of the system.

[brigham]

Doesn't the Elizabeth Line duplicate the Central, as far as the Central Area is concerned?
Assuming the opening is imminent, closing the Central would help shift punters onto the new service, at least some of whom might be wary of change.

[d7666]

Dec 1, 2021 2:53:35 GMT Chris M said:

I think I also remember reading (probably somewhere on this forum) that the units could be used as intermediate vehicles on the Central line with very little work. If so in the event the units are transferred the three options would seem to be -
* Do the minimal work and just use them as intermediate vehicles
* Do a full overhaul, but also do the minimal work so that the units can be used as intermediate vehicles while waiting their turn for overhaul.
* Do a full overhaul, leaving the units in sidings or a depot until it is their turn
Which is best will be dependent on a number of factors, likely including cost (time and money) of the minimal work (absolute and relative to the overhaul), rolling stock availability, and available space.

I believe you are correct about intermediate cars is less mods; I read that once too somewhere, probably was here.

However 20 extra intermediate cars are not a lot of good they can't contribute to overall UNITs available for CL unless there are cabs to go with them. Running them with existing A cars means other existing intermediates then have no cabs; the other option is fully reinstate cabs on the additional A cars that run mid train, last I knew of those at least two were gutted of driving desks and had to permanently run mid train.

Either way it's not impossible.

Serious drift from line closure subject though

[class411]

It's interesting that the article linked in the OP mentions four lines.

Spreading maximum fear, uncertainty, and doubt, but also indicating that perhaps this hasn't been seriously considered except in the most vague and general way.

[norbitonflyer]

Nov 30, 2021 22:21:46 GMT cudsn15 said:

If I was going to put money on it I think the Mayor will start off by curtailing lines like ........... no District to Richmond ........... they all have alternatives so won't upset too many locals.

What practical alternative is there to Richmond and, more particularly, Kew Gardens? (Note that if you also close the Bakerloo north of Queens Park the nearest connection between the Overground and the Tube would be West Hampstead!). It might also come to the attention of the Lib Dem spokesperson on transport, as it's in her constituency!

[norbitonflyer]

Dec 1, 2021 9:32:09 GMT brigham said:

Doesn't the Elizabeth Line duplicate the Central, as far as the Central Area is concerned?

And the H&C, including a direct link between Liverpool Street and Whitechapel. And unlike the Central Line, all the stations it serves are shared with other lines.

I doubt you could close only the central area section of the Central Line anyway.

[d7666]

Dec 1, 2021 10:59:51 GMT class411 said:

It's interesting that the article linked in the OP mentions four lines.

Spreading maximum fear, uncertainty, and doubt, but also indicating that perhaps this hasn't been seriously considered except in the most vague and general way.

I suggest that's the whole intent of it.

That's why it just says "line" and not specific, almost certainly no serious work can have gone into it.

[slugabed]

Dec 1, 2021 14:10:31 GMT d7666 said:

Dec 1, 2021 10:59:51 GMT class411 said:

It's interesting that the article linked in the OP mentions four lines.

Spreading maximum fear, uncertainty, and doubt, but also indicating that perhaps this hasn't been seriously considered except in the most vague and general way.

I suggest that's the whole intent of it.

That's why it just says "line" and not specific, almost certainly no serious work can have gone into it.

"What's our deficit?"
"X"
"What's our budget?"
"Y"
"How many tube lines do we have?"
"Z"
"So X=Y/Z?"
"More or less...shall I draught a press release?"

[taylor]

As I mentioned on the control room staff shortages discussion, much of ‘medical London’ from the Royal London in Whitechapel to St Mary’s in Praed Street is stretched along the H&C. Many staff live in NW and the MET, H&C and Circle are their and their patients’ life lines. So, I’m very reluctant to suggest and more than a little perturbed that either MET trains via Baker Street junction or trains from Aldgate to Aldgate E. junctions might be under discussion for withdrawal, hence my suggestion up-thread of an inverted ‘executive-curl’ route-form for the Circle Line, OR: Hammersmith(H&C)-Embankment-West Ham etc. in place of the H&C. (Whitechapel is not a realistic turn-back point for normal ops.) I made this suggestion conscious of wheelchair and other mobility-impaired users. Just one example: An wheelchair outpatient at UCLH travelling east after an appointment uses the sole lift connections to the IR at Euston Square, travels W. on a MET train to Baker Street Platform 2 from which there is step-free easy-access to Circle Line platform 5 and then takes an eastbound train from there. Take away the through MET service east of Baker Street and you strand that patient. There are several other examples. The line is also used by staff on duty: The Royal London, Barts and UCLH are all part of the Barts Health NHS Trust and share valuable facilities like MRI, and staff and patients need to get efficiently from one hospital to another. Removing trains from Aldgate East to Aldgate Junction becomes an encumbrance. A little while ago, a colleague ran out of vital memory chips at UCLH for tests she was running. She called one of the associated hospitals and a colleague there grabbed the next H&C and the chips were in the clinic in less than 30 minutes.

[spsmiler]

The closures are really more like mothballing than making the routes inoperable.

Closing these would show that he means business without impacting too many people

Mill Hill East (especially off-peak)
Olympia
Romford - Upminster
Waterloo & City
DLR to either Tower Gateway or Bank (Perhaps Bank would see the greater reduction in operating costs?)

Try to sell off the cable car, if not run a passenger servay to see how many people use it for serious travel eg: (commuting) and if possible close / mothball until tourists return next summer

Also the Hainault - Woodford could become 'peak hour only', although since weekend leisure travel has rebounded better than peak hour traffic so maybe there could be some weekend trains? The route itself has strategic benefit for the service (Hainault depot via Woodford) so would remain open.

Reducing services to The City (at Bank) could also be done as tools to encourage the City of London local government and financial industry to become more enthusiastic in getting the DfT to give TfL a decent new financial deal.

In addition, there could be a general review of off-peak services to see where reductions could be made. When I was young Gants Hill's off-peak service was every 12 minutes (5 trains an hour). Now it is something like double that. Whilst I do not really want to suffer cutbacks it could be that savings could be made.

[spsmiler]

deleted - I meant to edit, not quote myself! sorry